SPACE TIME CLUSTERS OF DENGUE FEVER IN MEDAN MUNICIPALITY, NORTH SUMATERA, INDONESIA
Dengue fever (DF) infection continues to present as a serious public health problem in Medan municipality, North Sumatera, Indonesia. The number of DF cases continuously increasing recently. However, space time clusters of DF have not been investigated yet. A study was undertaken to detect clusters of DF incidence during 2015-2018 in Medan. Spatial geo-reference was conducted to 151 village coordinates by geocoding each village’s offices. A retrospective space-time scan statistic analysis based on population data and monthly DF incidence was performed using SaTScan TM v9.4.4. Data of DF during 1 January 2015-31 December 2018 were analyzed using Poisson model to identify the villages at high risk of DF. The test of significance of the identified clusters of DF was based on comparing the likelihood ratio (LLR) against the null distribution obtained from Monte Carlo hypothesis testing. Total number of permutation was set to 999 and the significance level was set as 0.05. The highest LLR number was determined as the most likely cluster, while the rests were as the secondary clusters. This analysis identified 13 significant clusters. These DF clusters were initially spatially concentrated in the southwest and center of Medan and the last two years of study moved towards the northern part and identified in the last four months (September-December) of each year, which were the rainy seasons in the area. Most likely clusters were most frequently detected in the last three-year period of study in Anggrung village. Thirteen statistically significant DF clusters were identified in the 2015-2018 period. This may assist health authorities to improve the DF preventive strategies and develop public health interventions especially in the cluster’s area.
WHO. Prevention and Control of Dengue and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever. WHO Reg Publ SEARO. 2009;29.
Guzman MG, Harris E. Dengue. Lancet. 2015;385:453–65.
Malavige GN, Fernando S, Fernando DJ, Seneviratne SL. Dengue viral infections. 2004;588–601.
Rossi G, Karki S, Smith RL, Brown WM, Ruiz MOH. Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology The spread of mosquito-borne viruses in modern times : A spatio-temporal analysis of dengue and chikungunya. Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol. 2018;26:113–25.
Ministry of Health Indonesia. Guideline for prevention and control of dengue fever. 2017.
Sitepu FY, Supriyadi T. Evaluation of dengue hemorrhagic fever control and prevention program in North Sumatra, 2010-2012. BALABA. 2013;9(01):1–6.
Sitepu FY, Nasution H, Supriyadi T, Depari E. Epidemiological and Entomological Investigation of Dengue Fever Outbreak in South Nias District, North Sumatera Province, Indonesia, 2016. OSIR. 2018;Sep;11(3):8–12.
Statistics MB of. Medan Municipality in Figures 2017. Medan Bureau of Statistic; 2018.
Setiawati MD. The Influence of Climate Variables on Dengue in Medan , Indonesia The Influence of Climate Variables on Dengue in Medan , Indonesia. 2017;(January).
Ghosh A, Dar L. Dengue vaccines: challenges, development, current status and prospects. Indian J Med Microbiol. 2015;33(1):3–15.
Hadisoemarto PF, Castro MC. Public Acceptance and Willingness-to-Pay for a Future Dengue Vaccine : A Community-Based Survey in Bandung , Indonesia. 2013;7(9).
Dhewantara PW, Ruliansyah A, Fuadiyah MEA, Astuti EP, Widawati M. Space-time scan statistics of 2007-2013 dengue incidence in Cimahi city, Indonesia. Geospat Health. 2015;10(373):255–60.
Anno S, Imaoka K, Tadono T, Igarashi T, Sivaganesh S, Kannathasan S, et al. Space-time clustering characteristics of dengue based on ecological, socio-economic and demographic factors in northern Sri Lanka. Geospat Health. 2015;10(376):215–22.
Kulldorff M. SaTScan User Guide. http://www.satscan.org/; 2018. 1–118 p.
Jerrett M, Gale S, Kontgis C. Spatial Modeling in Environmental and Public Health Research. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2010;7:1302–29.
Velasco-salas ZI, Vincenti-gonzalez MF, Lizarazo F, Amarista MA, Sierra GM, Comach G, et al. Spatial Analysis of Dengue Seroprevalence and Modeling of Transmission Risk Factors in a Dengue Hyperendemic City of Venezuela. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2017;1–21.
Yue Y, Sun J, Liu X, Ren D, Liu Q, Xiao X, et al. International Journal of Infectious Diseases Spatial analysis of dengue fever and exploration of its environmental and socio-economic risk factors using ordinary least squares : A case study in fi ve districts of Guangzhou City ,. Int J Infect Dis [Internet]. 2018;75:39–48. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2018.07.023
Endy TP, Nisalak A, Chunsuttiwat S, Libraty DH, Green S, Rothman AL, et al. Spatial and Temporal Circulation of Dengue Virus Serotypes : A Prospective Study of Primary School Children in Kamphaeng Phet , Thailand. 2002;156(1):52–9.
Luz PM, Mendes BVM, Codeço CT, Struchiner CJ, Galvani AP. Time Series Analysis of Dengue Incidence in Rio de Janeiro , Brazil. 2008;79(6):933–9.
Chuang T, Ng K-C, Nguyen TL, Chaves LF. Epidemiological Characteristics and Space-Time Analysis of the 2015 Dengue Outbreak in the Metropolitan Region of Tainan City , Taiwan. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2018;15(396).
Acharya BK, Cao C, Lakes T, Chen W, Naeem S. Spatiotemporal analysis of dengue fever in Nepal from 2010 to 2014. BMC Public Health. 2016;16(August).
Hamer D, Lichtveld M. Spatial Distribution of Epidemiological Cases of Dengue Fever in Suriname, 2001 ‒ 2012. West Indian Med J. 2015;64(4):344–50.
Satoto T, Alvira N, Wibawa T, Diptyanusa A. Controlling Factors that Potentially against Transmission of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever at State Elementary Schools in Yogyakarta. Kesmas Natl Public Heal J. 2017;11(4):178–84.
Cordeiro R, Donalisio MR, Andrade VR, Mafra ACN, Nucci LB, Brown JC, et al. Spatial distribution of the risk of dengue fever in southeast Brazil, 2006-2007. BMC Public Health. 2011;11(355).
Prayitno A, Taurel A-F, Nealon J, Satari HI, Karyanti MR, Sekartini R, et al. Dengue seroprevalence and force of primary infection in a representative population of urban dwelling Indonesian children. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2018;11(2017):1–9.
Dom NC, Madzlan MF, Hasnan SNA, Misran N. Water quality characteristics of dengue vectors breeding containers. Int J Mosq Res. 2016;3(January):25–9.
Harapan H, Anwar S, Bustaman A, Radiansyah A, Darmayanti D, Pratama R, et al. Community Willingness to Participate in a Dengue Study in Aceh Province , Indonesia. 2016;1–15.
Siregar FA, Abdullah MR, Omar J, Sarumpaet SM, Supriyadi T, Makmur T, et al. Social and Environmental Determinants of Dengue Infection Risk in North Sumatera Province , Indonesia.
Sarfraz MS, Tripathi NK, Tipdecho T, Thongbu T, Kerdthong P, Souris M. Analyzing the spatio-temporal relationship between dengue vector larval density and land-use using factor analysis and spatial ring mapping. BMC Public Health. 2012;12(853):1–19.
Gordis L. Epidemiology. Fourth. Saunders Elsevier; 2008.
Fazidah SA, Abdullah MR, Omar J, Sarumpaet SM. Climate Variability and Disease Forecasting Model for Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in North Sumatera Province , Indonesia. 2015;(August).
Tonini M, Tuia D, Ratle F. Detection of clusters using space – time scan statistics. Int J Wildl Fire. 2009;18(18):830–6.