WINNING THE WAR AGAINST COVID-19 IN MALAYSIA: AN ACHIEVABLE GOAL?
Covid-19 in Malaysia
The World Health Organization (WHO) has initially categorised COVID-19 infection as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) in late January 2020 and later on declared the outbreak as a pandemic on March 11, 2020. On February 4, 2020 the first Malaysian positive COVID-19 patients was detected. It was estimated through a thorough decision tree technique, cumulatively 22,000 positive patients were expected to be infected nationwide. At the current rate of disease detection, screening yield and clinical capacity in Malaysia, the identification of the positive patients will have to be continuously done until middle of May 2020. In addition, a prediction with the forecasted testing capacity was also conducted. In contrast with the earlier estimation, massive testing causes the number of positive patients to be saturated earlier, by the end of April 2020. Based on the projection, 346, 307 cumulative tests will be conducted with 225,100 cumulative positive cases will be identified. Of the numbers, the cumulative number of patients in care would be 17,631 with 705 cumulative number of admission to intensive care unit and 353 cumulative patients required for ventilator. The cumulative death and cumulative discharge are expected to be 394 and 6008 respectively. Currently, it is challenging for Malaysia to flatten the epidemic curve due to the constraints of healthcare resources. These challenges potentially highlight the need for realistic strategies with regard to the country’s capacity.
Jiaye L, Xuejiao L, Shen Q, et al. Community transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, Shenzhen, China. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020;26(6).
World Health Organisation. Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Situation. 2020. https://who.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/c88e37cfc43b4ed3baf977d77e4a0667. Accessed March 27, 2020.
WHO. 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV): Strategic preparedness and response plan. 2020. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/srp-04022020.pdfExternal Link. Accessed March 27, 1BC.
Cable News Network. Coronavirus Outbreak Timeline Fast Facts. 2020. https://krdo.com/health/2020/03/24/wuhan-coronavirus-timeline-fast-facts/. Accessed March 27, 2020.
Garda World. Malaysia: First Cases of 2019-nCoV Confirmed January 25. 2020. https://www.garda.com/crisis24/news-alerts/308496/malaysia-first-cases-of-2019-ncov-confirmed-january-25. Accessed March 27, 2020.
Abdullah H. Updates On The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Situation In Malaysia. Ministry of Health Malaysia. 2020.
Astro Awani. MCO extended until April 14th: Don’t panic, PM tells Malaysians. 2020. https://beta.astroawani.com/video-malaysia/mco-extended-until-april-14th-don-t-panic-pm-tells-m-sians-kini-news-25-mar-1840036. Accessed March 27, 2020.
Choong J. Only 60% complied with MCO: Police may take sterner action. Malay Mail Online. 2020. https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2020/03/19/ismail-sabri-four-in-10-malaysians-violating-movement-control-order/1848077. Accessed April 29, 1BC.
World Health Organization. WHO Director-General’s 0pening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19. 2020. https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---16-march-2020. Accessed March 27, 1BC.
Max R, Hannah R, Esteban O-O. Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) - Statistics and research. 2020. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus. Accessed March 27, 2020.